Jamie's Back, now to Holland

Photo:  A much younger man who had hope, idealism, and energy past 8pm at night.

Jamie got back from Egypt.  And just in time!

I made Marco's lunch and forgot to give him his lunchbox.  Poor kid.

Then I forgot to send him with his Karate uniform for Karate class.

I'm really not that good at the Mr.Mom thing.  I'm there emotionally 100%, but logistically...I don't know how Mom's keep track of everything.

Jamie had a great trip and loved being back in Egypt.

Tomorrow we are going to The Netherlands (Holland) to spend some time with the churches there.  We have 2 events (that I know of) planned.  We feel very connected to Holland since we spent some time there a few years ago.  They know Marco and Jamie and it will be fun for all three of us to go and re-connect.  Next entry will be about Peter in Hungary who was with us in Bulgaria.

Jamie Off to Egypt Today

I'm back from Bulgaria and a mere 48 hours later, Jamie is off to Egypt.  Crazy schedule, but beginning in Mid-June, we will be together as a family without interruption for 7 weeks!  That will be great.  We will be in The Netherlands (Holland), USA, Costa Rica, and Italy in these coming weeks and we'll be able to do all of that together. I'm not that crazy about the idea of Jamie traveling to Egypt alone with all this stuff being as unsettled as it is--but Jamie's an extremely confident traveler who knows how to go anywhere on her own.  She's also very familiar with Egypt, and the work that needs to be done there is stuff that she understands far better than I do.  When it comes to Egypt, she is definitely the expert.  And as Regional Coordinators for this region, we will often have to do things like this.

We are making a lot of preparation in Egypt for future plans and there's quite a bit of groundwork that has to be laid down.  Jamie's trip is about making those preparations.

Of course she has many friends that are like (are) family there and she was very much looking forward to being there.  We'll be glad when she is back home. So say a little prayer for Jamie this week.

As for Marco and I...we will return to our regular routine of starving, not bathing, and generally living like rabid animals while Jamie is gone.  I'm so hungry.  "  'ave you got any porridge guv'nor?"

More about Bulgaria in the next post.

Problem: Are you Getting our Newsletter Regularly?

Last summer, when we launched Three Worlds we started an e-journal called "Three Worlds Journal."  All of you on our  mailing list (who received the Chinatimes) should have automatically begin receiving the Three Worlds Journal.  However, we are getting reports of people not receiving this. You should be getting it every 2 months and have about 6 editions by now.  It comes as an email and updates you on all that has been happening here in Europe and the Middle East.  If you formerly got the chinatimesonline and are not getting the Three Worlds e-journal (or think you are missing issues), please let us know.  At first it seemed like only a few people were missing it, but that number is growing so we are a bit concerned as regular communication is very important to us.

Send us an email if you are not receiving it.  It may be that your spam filter is catching them or not allowing them to come in, or it could be another kind of problem.  We are checking it out.

Thanks!

Barnett on Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt

Hanging out at the Vienna transit lounge in Austria. Trying to get a nuanced opinion on anything in politics and geo-politics nowadays in near to impossible.  But Thomas Barnett is always a source of refreshing analysis. He also share my view that the coming "Chinese Century" is hype and will be foiled by far too many macro-problems that will stunt its growth relatively soon.  Here he is on the new factions erupting within the Muslim Brotherhood. Solid, reasonable analysis: Thomas Barnett:

This is pretty much how I always expect it to go in these situations:  the long-oppressed opposition party finally has its chance at the brass ring and - booyah! - it starts fracturing over how to do it.  This is usually how the single party - realized or just self-actualizing - falls apart.  It's how I would see the Cuban Communist Party falling apart after the Castros depart. ["Falling apart" here also meaning birthing new parties.]

WSJ story on leader of one of the more moderate factions within the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood deciding to break from the party and declare his own presidential campaign.  "More moderate" is defined as:

. . . a positive relationship with the West, more rights for women and religious minorities, and democratic reform within the party's top-down leadership structure.

But here's the real rub:  Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh and his faction believe the MB must split into two groups -a political party and a religious organization with attendant charities.

Since Dr. Fotouh, 59 years old, is effectively breaking the MB's promise not to field a candidate, many in the group are calling for him to resign because the group won't support his candidacy.

Despite the fears triggered by his announcement, I think this is a good thing.  If we want the Nelson Mandela-like figure, he will necessarily be of the group and simultaneously above the group. The MB is the most organized party, so it's not odd that compelling figures will arise from it, but they need to do so as Fotouh seems to be doing, by forging a special, above-it-all path.

Obviously, a very early reading, but that's my suspicion.  The MB was the ONLY party to turn to - in opposition - under Mubarak, but now that he's gone, factions not only emerge but they break off and form new parties.

But no, I don't expect Egypt to pick some perfectly secularly leader.  I think that's unrealistic and - in some way - unwise.  But they do need the above-the-party-type figure, and maybe this guy is it.

Yes, I know I will be immediately bombarded by THE quote or action from Fotouh's past, but none of that will impress me.  The only thing that will count is what he does now.  Mandela was a figurehead for a Soviet-sponsored national liberation movement in my PhD diss - totally on the OTHER side.  Then the ANC got its chance, and Mandela made the most of it, and South Africa is South Africa today and Mandela is a near saint.

If you want the Egyptian Mandela, this IS the most logical source-path.

3W Seminar Offerings

We are getting ready for our 3W Seminar in Bulgaria.  3W Seminars are designed to deal with the issues that our churches in Europe and the Middle East are facing.  In each seminar (over a weekend) we do a number of talks on one or two issues.  I lead the seminar along with either 1) One of the missionaries on our 3W team  2) an  expert from a supporting church or the larger CHOG or 3) in conjunction with an outside non-profit organization with expertise in the field. The 3W Seminars help build up connectivity, help our region identify the common areas of struggle, and introduce outsiders to the churches in our region.  The list of courses we are offering is as follows:

Designing a Youth Program
Three models for structuring a youth program
Cross cultural ministry in your church neighborhood
How to reach out to different cultures
When and how to plant a church
Questions and issues that need to be asked and dealt with before planting a church
Dealing with the challenge of Post-Christian environments (the Challenge of Secular Europe)
Why is Europe so difficult and what approaches can be taken?
Top 5 Mistakes Churches are Making
Learn about the the top 5 mistakes churches are making and how to respond
Organizing Your Church
How can you better organize your church for effective ministry?
Developing a National Strategy
Is your country organized effectively for national connectivity and evangelism?

Preparing for a New Pastor
Questions and issues that need to be asked of the church and pastor as ministry begins.
Becoming a Missionary Church
How to break the inward-looking cycle.
Church of God History
What is the history of the Church of God and why and how is it relevant now?
Church of God Theology
What is Church of God theology and why and how is it relevant now?
Analyzing your church or national structure
Is your church or national structure configured in a way to maximize your ministry potential?
Engaging the Three Worlds of Christianity (traditional, post-Christendom, non-Western)
Explore the 3 theological worlds that exist in 21st Century Christianity and the Church of God.  An important piece to the puzzle in Global and local evangelism.
Doing Business as Mission
How to start a business to use it for evangelism or support ministry and pastors.
Hopefully more will be added in the future...

3W Seminar: Bulgaria

In a few hours, I am off to Bulgaria for our third 3W Seminar.  This one will be about Business as Mission and will not be lead by me, but by our friends at County Line Church in Indiana.  I'm looking forward to learning a lot myself. This is my first ever trip to Bulgaria.  I'm looking forward to meeting with the leaders and spending time with our 3W Team members Dave and Kathy Simpson--not to be confused with Homer and Marge. It will be great to see Nathan "Batman" as well from County Line.

And, we are flying in Pastor Kiss from Budapest,  Hungary and another member from the church there to join us during this Bulgaria tour.  You will be hearing a lot about Pastor Kiss (pronounced "kish"). He's in his mid-20's and is like the son I never had, or once had, but lost somewhere.  It should be a ton o' laughs, this one.  I'm looking to getting over to Hungary in the near future to meet the rest of the Hungary crew as well.

It sounds like they have a full schedule for me over there in Plovdiv and Sofia.  We'll see if the posts can keep on coming with more of my mediocre pictures for the whole family.

What is Poverty?: "The Disappearance of the Third World"

In my second book, Faith in the Future: Christianity's Interface with Globalization, I argued that this latest round of globalization (Globalization 3: 1991-present) was ushering in "the disappearance of the Third World."  By this, I meant that we now live in a world where the vast majority of people live decently, if not comfortably in many of the places we used to call "Third World."  The fact is that the average human being today lives longer and healthier than at anytime in human history.  "After thousands of years of virtually no fluctuation, the world's per capita income has exploded since 1800; it is nine times greater today.  While it is true that the rich are getting richer and the gap between the richest and the poorest is widening, it must be noted that the poor themselves are also getting richer" (p. 29).  Today, 70% of the world's poor live in middle-income countries.  That's a huge difference from the world I was born into where most of those middle-income countries were totally poor, "Third World" nations with a wealthy class that was practically unmeasurable.

By this, I do not mean that there are not poor people or poor countries.  What I do mean is that the stagnant view of entire countries being locked in absolute poverty ("poor China," "poor India," "poor Nigeria") is out-moded.  We now live in an era where a country of 1 billion peasants (who were suffering famines and eating tree bark around the time I was born) now have the 2nd largest economy in the world:  China. Just think about that for a second.  The world has changed so that countries can be more quickly upwardly mobile, and most populations in the world do have access to enough food and money--if man-made conditions are right as opposed to the old age where poverty was the norm despite what man did.

Recently I told someone that apartment prices in Luanda, Angola were like  Hong Kong or Paris.  I mentioned rents of $2,000 per month.  Well, I just read an article today saying that rents in some apartments in Luanda are now at $40,ooo per month.  Why? Because of Chinese investment and oil discoveries.  Now of course, Angola is filled with poverty--but it is also increasingly filled with modernity and wealth even amongst the Africans themselves.  Because of this latest round of globalization, it is hard for whole countries, and large swaths of those countries populations to truly be disconnected and poor with no food.

Having been in shanty towns in Zambia, Kenya, China, Guatemala, India and many other places--I'm very aware that poverty exists.  Had I not been adopted, I could be in a shantytown now--if I had even survived my severe case of malnutrition. But today's poverty is often the result of bad governance, personal choice, or cultural factors rather than being the result of a pre-technological age of food scarcity. India has been able to feed its 1 billion people for the past 20 years, but 80% of the food supply is lost to corruption.

In all of these places, you will often find a booming, underground economy full of entrepreneurship. Of course there are places like Somalia, Central African Republic, and Afghanistan--but once again, this is primarily human-inflicted poverty as opposed to man living in areas that are incapable of providing for people. Even Somalia and the barren parts of Ethiopia could survive and thrive in the harshness of the climate in ways that were not possible in say 1700 or even 1980.

Or a quick way to say this is:  the poor people of centuries past would recognize each other, but they would not recognize the majority of today's global poor.

With so many people still calling for huge financial aid packages to third world nations, a study was recently done to find out what poverty really is in the 21st century.  They used a far more nuanced approach to examining poverty which goes in line with where I am at.  An excerpt from Foreign Policy:

***

"One reason the poverty trap might not exist is that most people have enough to eat. We live in a world today that is theoretically capable of feeding every person on the planet. In 1996, the FAO estimated that world food production was enough to provide at least 2,700 calories per person per day. Starvation still exists, but only as a result of the way food gets shared among us. There is no absolute scarcity. Using price data from the Philippines, we calculated the cost of the cheapest diet sufficient to give 2,400 calories. It would cost only about 21 cents a day, very affordable even for the very poor (the worldwide poverty line is set at roughly a dollar per day). The catch is, it would involve eating only bananas and eggs, something no one would like to do day in, day out. But so long as people are prepared to eat bananas and eggs when they need to, we should find very few people stuck in poverty because they do not get enough to eat. Indian surveys bear this out: The percentage of people who say they do not have enough food has dropped dramatically over time, from 17 percent in 1983 to 2 percent in 2004. So, perhaps people eat less because they are less hungry.

And perhaps they are really less hungry, despite eating fewer calories. It could be that because of improvements in water and sanitation, they are leaking fewer calories in bouts of diarrhea and other ailments. Or maybe they are less hungry because of the decline of heavy physical work. With the availability of drinking water in villages, women do not need to carry heavy loads for long distances; improvements in transportation have reduced the need to travel on foot; in even the poorest villages, flour is now milled using a motorized mill, instead of women grinding it by hand. Using the average calorie requirements calculated by the Indian Council of Medical Research, Deaton and Drèze note that the decline in calorie consumption over the last quarter-century could be entirely explained by a modest decrease in the number of people engaged in heavy physical work.

Beyond India, one hidden assumption in our description of the poverty trap is that the poor eat as much as they can. If there is any chance that by eating a bit more the poor could start doing meaningful work and get out of the poverty trap zone, then they should eat as much as possible. Yet most people living on less than a dollar a day do not seem to act as if they are starving. If they were, surely they would put every available penny into buying more calories. But they do not. In an 18-country data set we assembled on the lives of the poor, food represents 36 to 79 percent of consumption among the rural extremely poor, and 53 to 74 percent among their urban counterparts.

It is not because they spend all the rest on other necessities. In Udaipur, India, for example, we find that the typical poor household could spend up to 30 percent more on food, if it completely cut expenditures on alcohol, tobacco, and festivals. The poor seem to have many choices, and they don't choose to spend as much as they can on food. Equally remarkable is that even the money that people do spend on food is not spent to maximize the intake of calories or micronutrients. Studies have shown that when very poor people get a chance to spend a little bit more on food, they don't put everything into getting more calories. Instead, they buy better-tasting, more expensive calories."

****

The point is that 20th century technologies, combined with better government, and medical and environmental breakthroughs are making pre-20th century poverty obsolete.  This is not to say that the poor don't matter, or that it's their fault.  Rather it is an indictment against the simplistic "Live Aid" approach to poverty:  Raise $50 million and give it to Ethiopia because they are all starving.

In today's world, dealing with poverty means factoring in a lot of human elements in a nuanced way.  Rarely is the problem simply a lack of food and opportunities.  And rarely is the best solution simply giving money.

Oh Canada!

Wow!  What a great time in Canada!  Canada always comes through.  Have I ever had a non-enjoyable moment in the country of Canada?  I don't think so.  Thank you, thank you, thank you, to all who attended the 2011 Theologue at Gardner Bible College. Everyone was so incredibly nice and attentive and supportive.  It was an honor to be there. I got back on Friday evening.  It was a long day.  I finished up the theologue, had lunch with the attendees, cleaned up my room and drove 3 hours to Calgary.  Stopped off at the Olive Garden (YES!!!!!!!!!) for a super quick dinner of infinite pleasure---and then a short stop at the big Canadian Borders-like bookstore (Chapters) and dropped off the rental car at Calgary International.  Eight hours to London, three in transit, and 1hr and 20 minutes back to Berlin.

Marco had just returned from his first ever trip away from home.  His class of 2nd graders spent 2 1/2 days (that is a LONG time) at a camp 2 hours north of Berlin.  We were very much the worried parents...okay I was...and he ended up having a great time.  That night I slept like 16 hours!  And then last night I slept about 3 hours.  So I'm messed up.

It was very interesting to see Calgary.  I never did make it to Banff, but I saw the Canadian Rockies from a distance.  It was nice to see my friends Dan and Laura in Edmonton who are expecting their first child---Patrick or Patrickella in a few months.  Dan is one of only three people that read this diary.  On Sunday I visited Gracepoint Church in Edmonton and was very impressed by Pastor George and the whole ministry team.  The church is really growing and Pastor George's sermon was great.

After Edmonton, it was down to Theologue for 18 hours of Patrick unplugged.  Now they know what it's like to be Jamie.  That's a lot of talking, but this was such a wonderful, receptive, and respectful audience.  I appreciated their attentiveness.

As I told them in Canada, our CHOG connections extend everywhere.  My father was literally born in a broom closet at Gardner College in Camrose, Alberta.  I wish I were kidding, but I am not.  Apparently that sacred spot was torn down once the new buildings were constructed.  Sorry Dad.  But it's true...my Dad is from Canada and was named after Harry Gardner.  It was very interesting to be in my father's birthplace after hearing about it all my life.

Next week I go to Bulgaria to see the cell in a women's prison where my sister was born.

Okay, thanks again Canada!  Unfortunately you gave us Justin Beiber, but it's cancelled out by the fact that you also gave us Rush.

Perugia and Tuscany

On our way out of Rome, we decided to stop in Perugia.  One of the women in the Rome CHOG was from Perugia and talked about how beautiful it was.  The old town sits upon a hill (as is common in Italy) and is very classical Italian.  It was on our way, so we stopped and it turned out to be one of my favorite places.  It was beautiful. Then we headed to Tuscany.  Famous Tuscany--the land of the world's most famous wine.  We were specifically in Chianti part of Tuscany.  This is classic wine country--the Tuscany of movies.  The small medieval towns sit on hilltops and are very quaint and don't appear modern at all.  The fields, forests, and vineyards are gorgeous and the hills rise up to 2,000 feet in some places.

Every drive offers a spectacular view and every once in a while, you pass through  yet another medieval town that may be only a few blocks big.

We spent most of our time in Radda, Castellano, San Gimignano, and the hospital in Sienna (see previous post "High Drama in Tuscany"). I never could decide which town was my favorite.  San Gimignano is probably one of the most beautiful towns in all of Italy.  But Radda and Castellano were smaller versions that were both lovely.  All offer spectacular views and medieval castles.