GBR - Episode 3

The long awaited, and much delayed episode 3 of Gateway Berlin Radio is up. In this episode The Oregonian film critic M.E. Russell discusses why Christian movies are often shallow compared to secular movies and what would make Christian art better.  Also:  A farewell to our summer intern Jael Tang.

Right click to download the podcast: [audio:http://www.three-worlds.com/GBR_Ep3.mp3|titles=Gateway Berlin Radio - Episode 3=Patrick Nachtigall]

Reader Question: China's Reponse to the Nobel

I'm back from England by way of Northern Ireland.  My speech in Scotland was canceled  due to a severe snow storm that has all of Edinburgh and Glasgow turned into a sheet of ice.  People are sleeping in their cars on the interstate, I heard of a man not leaving his home for 4 days, and it's not even safe to walk on the streets.  Both my hosts and I decided it would be best to not even try navigating these dangerous streets.  Flights were very disrupted all over the UK due to the major freeze the country is feeling.  I'm glad to have arrived back in Berlin late last night and be with my family now through the holidays.  We'll re-schedule Scotland another time.  Thanks to the people at the International Christian College for being so understanding.

Consequently, I spent a lovely day in Belfast, Northern Ireland, had to re-book through Amsterdam, that flight was delayed, and then the flight to Berlin was delayed.  This was the last major work trip of 2010 and I'm pretty shot.  In fact, I need to just spend a couple of days getting my mind off of things and do some Christmas shopping before it kicks into high gear again in January.  So I will save my England post for later.

A loyal reader that worships this website (as all 3 of you loyal readers do) asked me to comment on the following article about Liu Xiaobo winning the Nobel Peace Prize--and China barring him or anyone related to him going to Oslo to pick up his award and give a speech.  Article here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8189833/Liu-Xiaobo-wins-Nobel-China-loses-face-with-boycott-of-peace-prize.html?sms_ss=email&at_xt=4d00203e3ebba2c1%2C0

From the article:

It is a measure of China’s worrying brittleness that it could not take the Nobel Committee’s decision on the chin and argue the case for its authoritarian system of government and the political stability it brings to a country barely three decades out of dictatorship.

It is a stability, the country’s mandarins argue, that has generated two decades of unprecedented economic growth which the democratic world has been only too happy to share, notwithstanding the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, to whose victims Mr Liu has dedicated his award.

The real world is a complicated place. Democratic nations like ours believe that China would be more stable if it adopted many of the reforms that Mr Liu and his fellow signatories advocate in their Charter 08 petition, starting with the release of political prisoners like Mr Liu himself, but including a separation of powers and the rights to freedom of speech and association.

But as China has showed so clearly in recent weeks, it is still a relative adolescent at the top table of world affairs, which is why it would be wise not to crow too much over tomorrow’s loss of face.

I tend to agree with this.  I continue to believe that China has done a pretty great job at navigating its entry into a globalized world beginning with the creation of the Special Economic Zones in 1980.  I, for one, think that it was a good thing that the Tiananmen Democracy Revolution of 1989 failed.  The students involved in those protests were horribly naive--and the whole thing began as a protest over cafeteria food.  A nation as diverse, complicated, and populous as China would not have been well served by an immediate transition to complete democracy. Obviously I lament the massacre and the torture or inhumane conditions put on protesters.

Most likely, China would be in a more anarchical (and poorer) state today had those democracy activists succeeded.  For the Chinese, the Collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was validation that they were right.  Both China and Russia--with large land and large populations were not remotely prepared for that kind of transition.  The average Chinese peasant (and China was still overwhelmingly rural then) would never have been able to make appropriate decisions in the voting booth.  China and Russia need strong central governments or they will fall apart and that will be OUR problem whether we live in Europe or the Americas.

China's path has been to pursue economic reform first--and then, in time--allow forms of democracy (more at the lower level).  We have to keep in mind that China is 4,000 years old, not 200 years old like the United States.  And it is a Confucian society.  And it has four times the population of the United States in a land that is not very supportive of large populations.  China has to import its rice.  In other words:

A few points about China from my perspective:

China is too complicated for Western style democracy right now. Perhaps one day they will be--but I would guess that this would need to follow the path of Mexico or Japan where when a 2nd political party emerges, it loses every election for a few decades until the country is really stable enough to have that 2nd party win.

China is fragile, democracy is messy. China is a country trying to balance an over-heated (bubble) economy, a rapidly ubanizing society, levels of pollution that are nearly unfathomable to us, widescale corruption, and a growing disparity between rich and poor, and imbalanced ratio of men to women, and a rapidly aging population (just to name a few).  The amount of crisis points that Chinese leaders have to deal with would boggle the mind of any other country. China's technocrats are smart and they have made consistently smart decisions.  China's party can make the difficult choices that a democracy like the USA and India cannot.  China's aggressiveness in dealing with the environment or infrastructure cannot be matched by the USA and India where politicians have to answer to the local people.

While it's great that there was a democratic wave in the 90's--a lot of these democracies are stuck (like Ukraine and many of the Central Asian Republicans) unable to form coalitions do deal with the most pressing problems.  Democracy (Iraq and Afghanistan and Haiti proving to be perfect examples) is inherently messy and I'm not sure China can afford that mess right now.  It is a far more fragile country than people realize.

Most Chinese are happy and proud of China: While living conditions in China are difficult for many people, living standards have improved so dramatically over the past few decades that from their perspective, an authoritarian government providing 10% economic growth per year is not such a bad thing.  Of course there is corruption, poverty, and many other problems, but what Westerners don't realize is that when I was born (not long ago) Chinese were eating tree bark and drinking horse urine to survive.  The argument that China's government is super evil works in the West---it's not so convincing to people that are now buying homes, getting cars, and even if they are poor--are eating three meals a day of real food.

China is not likely to take over the world. As you all know, I spent the last couple of years traveling all around the world and everywhere I went---I mean everywhere (from Chile to Zambia to England) people are absolutely convinced that China is going to rule the world.  Well, historically, in times when there are large geo-political shifts, the country that people think will become the new superpower does not.  Instead, something comes a long and derails their progress (France in the late 19th century, Russia in the 1940's, and Japan in the 1980's come to mind) and they hit a wall.  Then an unexpected nation (like the United States) ends up becoming the new superpower.

The reasons why China will NOT become the next great undisputed superpower are many in my book.  For starters, no nation has become a superpower with an aging population.  China may have doomed itself with its one child policy.  It has about 10 to 15 years before it has to deal with a severe shortage of workers and an abundance of retirees.  At the same time, China is in a massive economic bubble and all of this government mandated spending on infrastructure is going to lead to corruption and waste, and ultimately a big economic downturn.

IS THE NOBEL COMMITTEE DOING WELL BY HIGHLIGHTING A CHINESE DISSIDENT

Yes.  While I'm not convinced that the Nobel folks really appreciate the complexities China is facing, China does need to be pressured into acting responsibly.  I think this is the best of both worlds.  I think China is being smart by NOT allowing this Liu to receive the peace prize.  And I think the Nobel committee is right to put the pressure on China.

As China re-colonizes Africa, they are giving Africa a second opportunity at building up infrastructure, schools and businesses.  However, China's way of going about it is full of exploitation as well.  Entire closed colonies of Chinese are forming all over Africa.  I reported here on this website (Chinatimes) about how I learned in Uganda that the Chinese are involved in all sorts of building projects--but unlike in China--where a skyscraper goes up over night--in Africa they take their own sweet time building themselves deeper and deeper in to the governments of Africa.  And they don't morally care much about how corrupt or evil the governments in Africa are.

China is also very lax in doing its part to bring peace to troubled regions (most recently North Korea) or use their military to guard sea lanes or help global commerce in other ways.  So China does need its feet held to the fire at times.

The Nobel will go to a dissident.  And the news of this will be blacked out in China.  For a country as large, complicated and young as Modern China (1980-present) this is probably how it should be for now.

Note: I wish democracy were easy.  But I think we will see a big scaling back of democracy between 2015-2030.  At my old website I had an article I wrote called "the Future is Singapore" which basically argued that we are headed for a world of the "Corporate State" where prosperous countries are very inner-connected, and tightly regulated.  A world where people freely give up their rights, and even democracy for security, stability, and most of all prosperity.  I think Huxley's Brave New World and Orwell's 1984 will merge and segregate themselves from countries like Afghanistan that can only exist in chaos.  That's my prediction.  It's a long article, but if anyone wants to read it send me an email.

Somewhere in Northern Ireland

I'm in Belfast, Northern Ireland at the moment possibly stuck.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  The weather over Northern England and Scotland is creating havoc with the flight schedules so my plans are very much up in the air--although the planes are not. I've been to Ireland before---actually met God there once---that's an interesting story for another time---but I've never been to Northern Ireland which is Protestant and is actually part of the U.K. along with Scotland, Wales, and England.  Tomorrow I may be heading back to Berlin, may get stranded here in Northern Ireland, or may end up in Scotland.  Just not really sure at the moment.  And I don't care.  Although, I am missing Jamie and Marco terribly on this trip.  Once I'm done with this one--I have no more trips away from the family until 1 week in January--and the rest of these 2 months we will travel together if we have to at all.  Good!

More on my time with the Liverpool church later with pictures.  Right now, nothing is wanting to load.

Christian Persecution in Pakistan

Pakistan is not only the center of the world on terror, but it is also becoming a center of major Christian persecution.  From Time Magazine: "It all began a year and a half ago, with a quarrel over a bowl of water. A group of women farm workers were suffering in the heat near a village in Pakistan's Punjab province. Aasia Noreen, an illiterate 45-year-old mother of five, offered them water, but was rebuffed. Noreen was a Christian, they said, and therefore her water was unclean — sadly, a common taunt hurled at Pakistan's beleaguered Christians. But rather than swallowing the indignity, she mounted a stout defense of her faith.

Word of the exchange swiftly filtered through the village of Ittan Wali, in Sheikhupura district. The local mullah took to his mosque's loudspeakers, exhorting his followers to take action against Noreen. In a depressingly familiar pattern, her defense of her faith was twisted into an accusation of blasphemy, according to her family and legal observers familiar with the case. As a frenzied mob pursued her, the police intervened, taking her into custody. But far from protecting her, they arrested and charged Noreen with insulting Islam and its prophet. And on Nov. 8, after enduring 18 months in prison, she was sentenced to death by a district court, making her the first woman to suffer that fate."

You can read more here.

(Note: I'm in Liverpool, England and will hopefully post some pictures tomorrow, although I still can't figure out how to get the pictures off my phone.  Technology is hard.  Pushing buttons is hard.  Plugging things in is hard).

Liverpool Yeah, Yeah, Yeah!

Tonight I am flying to Liverpool to visit with our only church in Northern England which is pastored by J. Pemberton.  This will be my first trip ever to Liverpool--although I've wanted to go there for much of my life.

I have been a big Beatles fan since I was a kid.  I think I was 4 when I first started getting to know the most famous songs like "Michelle" and "Yesterday."  When I was 8, my sister borrowed "The Beatles Greatest Hits 1962-1966" and "The Beatles Greatest Hits 1967-1970" as well as "The Beatles: Love Songs" (which is no longer available).  These three albums had probably 60 to 80 songs on them and that was when I became fanatical about the Beatles.  Around that time, I saw "The Complete Beatles"--A Fantastic 2 hour documentary on the Fab Five and I started to read all the major books about the Beatles: Philip Normans, Peter Brown's, and others.

I didn't discover "the White Album" until my senior year in high school, and it was the summer of my senior year that I listened to Abbey Road over and over.  In 1992, my friends Greg, Mike and I went to Abbey Road and crossed the famous crosswalk outside the studio (which is featured on the album cover).  There is a picture of me doing that somewhere but I lost it.  I have it on video though.  And when I was about 17, my Dad took me to see "Rain"--A Beatles impersonation group.  They were uncannily perfect.  It was the closest thing to living back then and is still one of the best concerts I've ever seen.

There's a lot that makes the Beatles fascinating:  the first major, global, rock group, 4 very distinct personalities, the early period of instantly catchy hits juxtaposed against the complexity and psychedelic nature of their second era, their sense of humor, and their spiritual journey--as crazy as it might have been.

But for me, there are two things that really stand out about Beatles music.

The first is that it is unnaturally, consistently catchy and melodic.  Most bands never put out two good albums in a row.  You are lucky to ever compose a song that is remembered 10 years from now.  Perhaps if you are very lucky and talented (U2), there may be 5 to 10 that are known worldwide and the average person on the street can hum.  But with the Beatles, there are tons of songs that people around the world, of all cultures, all ages, and all socio-economic classes and musical tastes can sing or know well.  "Yesterday," "Michelle," "All You Need is Love," "Yellow Submarine", "Let it Be," "Can't Buy Me Love," "Something", "Come Together," etc.  "Yesterday" is the most recorded song in musical history.  The list could go on and on.  And for every well known song that many people love like such as "Michelle" there are five times as many wonderful songs that are less known like "Blackbird" or "Across the Universe" that are equally wonderful.  For any other band, these lesser known songs would have been their one great hit.

And the strange thing is that it all came from 4 young kids from a then, dingy, working-class section of Industrial England.  How did these 4 kids come up with a Mozart-like ability to create tune after tune that is ridiculously full of melody.  And it never stopped.  Abbey Road, their last full studio album has a song like "Here Comes the Sun" which is just as melodic as "I Wanna Hold Your Hand."  Most of the genius was Paul McCartney and John Lennon (Actually it's Paul's songs that are usually preferred by people, even though John is the one who is thought of as the edgier writer).  But George's songs were great and even when Ringo comes up with "Octopuses Garden" or "Goodnight", it is ridiculously catchy.

The song that always sticks out to me is "And I Love Her."  This quiet song has a guitar part that reminds me of Latin American (Chilean) music and it always blows my mind that such an odd sounding song (which sounded nothing like the music of the time) could be written by a bunch of kids in Northern England.  Where did the musical depth come from?  The chord progressions?

The second thing that sets the Beatles apart was their experimentation.  They went from a simple song like "She Loves You" to the complexity (and orchestration) of "A Day in the Life".  Much of this came from the production of George Martin who took Lennon and McCartney's wild ideas and made them real in the studio.  They experimented with stereo, they used orchestra instruments, they made lyrics abstract (as opposed to "She loves you yeah yeah, yeah!"), and they subverted their own image rejecting commercialism and they still remained the biggest band.  The White Album has everything from bluegrass, to country, to burlesque, to 50's orchestra band music, to psychadelic rock , to an imitation of surf music.  A band no longer had to be one thing or play in one genre---they could be anything.

And when the band broke up just weeks before I was born, they left on top.  They never went into decline like every other band does.  Their final songs were better than their early songs.  I'm actually glad they broke up.  I'm glad we never had to see them flame out musically.

There is a Beatles tour in Liverpool.  The purpose of my trip is not to see the Beatles, but the church, so I won't be doing that.  But maybe on one of my future visits I will do so. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

London Calling

We just got back from London last night.  Jamie, Marco and I attended the Quarterly Meeting of the Church of God in the United Kingdom.  It is a time when all the churches come together for the weekend and report to each other and have a unity service.  These kinds of things are very important to keep the country's leadership together.

We had a good meeting and a wonderful dinner with Pastor Mascall and his wife on Friday.  We met with the leaders on Saturday, and then I spoke on Sunday.

It was a real whirlwind of a trip.  We left at 5AM on Friday morning and returned at 10PM on Sunday.  All three of us are completely wiped out.  As you all know, London is my favorite place in the world, but there wasn't any time to enjoy the city on this trip.  Our Sunday service was out in Goodmayes in North East London---a section of the city I had never been to before.  T

Marco was patient with all the meetings.  We did manage to sneak in a couple of hours at the British National Museum which is amazing, but that was about it.  The weather in Berlin and London is about 32 degrees F this week so..it's pretty uncomfortable being outside for long periods of time.  We did make a brief stop at my favorite Travel Bookstore and I bought that book about South Africa that I wrote about a couple of posts together.  I am looking forward to reading it.  Right now I'm reading the VS Naipaul book on African Spirituality which is turning out to be a train wreck.

As with all the places we have been visiting, the churches are in the midst of thinking about what is working, what's not working, and what kind of changes need to be made.  Overall, we are very happy with the way the U.K. is encouraging and investing in their young people.  And we are really looking forward to spending more time with them in the future as they re-calibrate and engage their awesome city.

This process of re-examination is one that I will probably write about in the future here on the diary.

In a mere 4 days, I'm off to Liverpool, England and Scotland.  I will be getting to see our one church in the North of England for the first time and I'm really looking forward to that.

Through the magic of this thing called "technology", my phone can take pictures. If I can figure out how to get them off my phone, I'll post some.  But no promises.  It's me we're talking about here.

Happy T-Day

We had our first snow here yesterday.  It was only a light dusting of snow, but it confirmed that winter is here. Today we have a full house as we celebrate Thanksgiving.  We haven't had a Thanksgiving in a long time.  This one feels like we are in America.  The weather is cool and fall-like, instead of hot and humid.  And Aaron rigged it up so we are watching NFL football live on our TV.  We had turkey, gravy, stuffing, and apple pie.  And we have about 12 of us in the home tonight.

The Tatman's from Auburn, Indiana have been with us this week and it has been great having them in our home.  They have been wonderful supporters of the Simpson's work in Bulgaria and are just returning from a visit there.    We'll miss them.  They've been awesome guests.

Tomorrow VERY EARLY in the morning, Jamie, Marco and I are flying to London for the Quarterly Meeting of the Church of God in the U.K.  We'll spend time with the youth on Friday also.  We'll fly back Sunday night.  As you all now, London is my favorite place on this green and blue little planet we call Earth--so it's always a good day when I'm on my way there.  And it's great to be with the folks in Tottenham.

Well, it's possible that we'll check in from London and hopefully we'll have some pictures to post.

Happy Thanksgiving to all our friends and family back in the USA.  We are especially thankful to all of you that support us and the Three Worlds team over here in Europe and the Middle East.

Cheerio!

South Africa: Promise Unfulfilled?

Back in 1995, I was in London and spent an evening hanging out with six guys from South Africa.  This was just a year after the new post-Apartheid era had begun.  These guys were angry.  They were white and their parents were part of the privileged elite.  Now in the post-Apartheid era, their fathers had lost their high level jobs and they felt the country was going down the drain.  "You wouldn't believe how incompetent the people are that are governing South Africa." I remember being shocked.  Our images of South Africa were all so positive.  This racist country led by white Afrikaners had peacefully allowed true democracy to occur allowing the African majority to vote in Nelson Mandela.  It was a triumphal moment in human history (and it still is).  South Africa was a wealthy, modern, racist state.  The big question lingering was "could it continue to be as successful?"  It was too early to tell in 1995, but I hadn't heard anything negative---until meeting these guys.

Now, a long-time South Africa watcher has written a book about the post-Apartheid South Africa; and it doesn't paint a pretty  picture.  There seems to be bad governance.  From the Wall Street Journal Review:

Trevor Manuel, the South African finance minister from 1996 to 2009, got his job when the aging Nelson Mandela asked, at a cabinet meeting, who was a good economist. Mr. Manuel raised his hand thinking Mr. Mandela had asked who was "a good communist." Mr. Manuel served his country ably. But the appointment of the sole competent minister in the first government of African National Congress was a matter of blind luck.

A weakening economy:

Today the economy and infrastructure are in shambles. Unemployment is 25.3%, up from 17% in 1995. When I last visited South Africa in 2008, the state-owned energy giant Eskom was implementing rolling blackouts because of low capacity and booming demand—the predictable effects of the ANC's drastically subsidizing the price of electricity.

And as is often the case, the revolutionary leader is often a lousy governor (Castro, Mao Zedong, Nelson Mandela).

But at the heart of the country's sickness is its governing party the ANC:

Mr. Johnson has been a prolific critic of the ANC's 16-year tenure in power. "South Africa's Brave New World," his political history of the post- apartheid era, amounts to a book-length indictment of the ANC. Its leaders come through as so corrupt, lecherous and violent that governance is not even an afterthought.

So this is some of what those guys in London were talking about.  Cronyism run a muck and a country with a strong economic foundation weakening quickly.

In Africa's latest renaissance, South Africa has been a pillar of African globalization.  Africa needs a strong South Africa.  While much of South Africa's successful institutions were built by whites upon the back of black workers, South Africa has people of all races that could make it a well-governed nation.  The recent World Cup held in South Africa was a big deal for all of Sub-Saharan Africa, not just the country of South Africa.  Much of what ails South Africa already plagues some of the rising African nations like Nigeria, Angola, and Liberia.  Will South Africa be more like the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa in the future?  Or will Sub-Sahran countries look more like the modern South Africa of the present?

Of course Sub-Saharan Africa is not a monolithic thing---there are many cultures and peoples on this continent, but there are enough commonalities in these countries that South Africa will always be the big example--for better or for worse.  I'm glad this (most likely) politically incorrect book has been written because Africa is getting its second chance at rapid modernization and it needs to get as much right as it possibly can.

The UN Human Development Report 2010

Despite the recessions, terrorism tension, and natural disasters---as I have long argued--the world's never been safer, wealthier, or healthier.  The UN Human Development Report 2010 is out and among the findings:

*Globalization is leading poor countries to catch up to rich countries on a scale never seen before.

*Since 1970, income in the developing world has risen 184 percent

*Literacy in the developing world has risen 61 percent since 1970.

*School enrollment and life expectancy have risen sharply in most developing nations.

*In 1970, just a third of nations had true democracy; today, the fraction is 60 percent.

*World literacy , is 84 percent now (that is VERY high).

*Life expectancies in Africa have grown by 15 years in the past 40 years.

*Oman, China, Nepal, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are seeing the fastest overall development socially.

*Norway is the overall healthiest place to live.  Zimbabwe is the worst.

*The USA is high upon the list as top places to live and China is far, far behind.

Marco was asking us about the terrorism alert here in Germany the other day.  "Are we safe?"  We told him about how when we were his age (and we're not that old), there were literally thousands of nuclear missiles pointed at each other between the Soviet Union and the USA.

When my father was his age, there were cities in Europe (including in Germany) that were 95% destroyed by bombs.  Not Africa, Europe!

When my grandfather was Marco's age, most people would have been fortunate to make it past 50 without painful, disabling sickness.

I believe we are entering into the counter-action phase of this latest round of hyper-globalization.  And many things will get worse and go wrong in the future.  The speed of innovation is far surpassing our ability to manage what we create and this is going to continue to have negative consequences.  But despite this, even since the mid-1990's,---even here in Europe, just 5 miles from this house in Berlin where a wall once stood----things are far better than they once were.

Threats Against Germany

German authorities are on guard against threats of armed attack on civilians of the kind that killed 166 in the Indian city of Mumbai in 2008, Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere said Thursday.

Police are taking added precautions, de Maiziere said, a day after Germany tightened security measures citing threats from Islamist militants.

"What we are basically preparing ourselves for, is that terrorists, coming from abroad, commit an attack soon after arrival, without warning, in a building or public place, knowing that they may not survive," de Maiziere told broadcaster ZDF.

"In shop talk, we'd call that something similar to what happened in Mumbai," he added.

Wednesday, Germany said it had strong evidence Islamist militants were planning attacks in the next two weeks, and it ordered security at potential targets such as train stations and airports to be tightened.

Security officials in Berlin said on condition of anonymity then that three scenarios existed -- one involving senior al Qaeda leader Younis al Mauretani, another involving the Mumbai-style attack, and a third pointing tosleeper cells already in Germany.

As de Maiziere spoke, German police were on route to Namibia to aid a separate investigation into a suspect package found at Windhoek airport during security checks for a German tourist flight to Munich.